Monday, June 15, 2009


Update: Living in Brazil right now! This is the reason that I haven't posted in a while. I'll be in NM in the beginning of july for the rainbow gathering. 


I was right in my prediction. Looks like we've got a perfectly formed rectangle top on the SP.  This rally has continued longer than I anticipated. Now the bad news is starting to come in. Factory production in New York alone dropped from 9.5 on the index to 5.4. This is almost a 50% drop. Usually economic indexes never move like this. Oil has hit it's peak because the dollar is strong, but the economy is not. The treasury surge is raising the interest rates to get a home mortgage, which is making housing bounce stumble. Though the proposed 15k (!!!) tax credit for homebuyers will help. We've still got staggering unemployment. Which means that consumerism, which the only good thing about america's economy, isn't fucntioning properly. 


Think about that for a minute.


The thing that has propelled growth in the U.S. since the turn of the millenium has been the financial sector, the housing market, and the debt of our consumers.

And what three things were the hardest hit?


Don't let the pundits and the indicators lie. Increased manufacturing, decreased wholesaler inventories, and higher consumer confidence mean that everyone still thinks we're in a "recession" and not in a global meltdown depression.

This is a common tendency for stocks that used to be valuable that suddenly go into freefall. As soon as the downward slide stops accelerating-- the masses think we've hit a bottom, so it shoots up one last good time before dropping off a cliff again (but this time much shorter and less intense) while the suckers slowly start to walk away from their losses. In the industry we call this shoot up a "dead cat bounce."

I was studying a chart today and found an example of a dead cat bounce.
Example: Check it out after the big drop.. it goes back up again on May 11th on relatively high volume but it cannot sustain itself. 



 I bought in this stock at 1.5k shares of this stock 2.12 a couple of days ago. It finally hit my target of 2.23, testing the 144/169 60min EMAS, but I didn't sell. If I had remembered that I told myself to sell at 2.24ish yesterday, I would have sold. So it wasn't a matter of discipline per se, just regular ole scatterbrained me. I'm not too worried, it will retest the 144/1691hrEMA major resistance again. 

I also bought GNVC today at .91 they have a good product if they can find the funding.

I also had the perfect setup for DSCO on a pullback. But my broker will only let me buy through the phone. So i missed a nice 8% gain there.

another hot stock to watch is ALTI


Nite nite time for me. I

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